Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.233740 0.263257 0.295213 0.332405 0.374535 0.420815 0.475560
2025-11-09 0.176926 0.213385 0.255745 0.308690 0.373228 0.449515 0.546788
2025-11-16 0.141857 0.181823 0.231277 0.297175 0.383006 0.491447 0.639547
2025-11-23 0.115542 0.156520 0.210224 0.286114 0.391188 0.532400 0.738027
2025-11-30 0.100129 0.142806 0.201812 0.289919 0.419142 0.603273 0.888306
2025-12-07 0.083388 0.124600 0.184416 0.278334 0.423545 0.641911 0.999629
2025-12-14 0.071507 0.111577 0.172429 0.272576 0.435299 0.692776 1.137876
2025-12-21 0.061924 0.100584 0.161815 0.267111 0.446351 0.743879 1.285073
2025-12-28 0.056250 0.094932 0.158711 0.273108 0.476765 0.830847 1.507571
2026-01-04 0.049962 0.087340 0.151292 0.270557 0.491897 0.893692 1.697997
2026-01-11 0.045287 0.081861 0.146682 0.272161 0.514513 0.973120 1.933216
2026-01-18 0.041822 0.078059 0.144488 0.277774 0.545315 1.072385 2.224964
2026-01-25 0.036679 0.070595 0.134824 0.268230 0.546189 1.115614 2.414891
2026-02-01 0.031823 0.063048 0.124018 0.254872 0.537335 1.137937 2.565207
2026-02-08 0.028462 0.058020 0.117506 0.249381 0.544231 1.194855 2.805149
2026-02-15 0.025446 0.053299 0.110994 0.242923 0.548011 1.245681 3.041585
2026-02-22 0.023821 0.051287 0.109874 0.248147 0.579122 1.364209 3.468558
2026-03-01 0.021278 0.046954 0.103179 0.239700 0.576790 1.403263 3.701310
2026-03-08 0.019374 0.043801 0.098692 0.235761 0.584774 1.469039 4.019305
2026-03-15 0.017682 0.040917 0.094441 0.231761 0.591961 1.534071 4.349497
2026-03-22 0.016787 0.039780 0.094114 0.237439 0.625082 1.672854 4.921600
2026-03-29 0.015528 0.037610 0.091029 0.235600 0.637849 1.758767 5.355641
2026-04-05 0.014581 0.036093 0.089359 0.237249 0.660555 1.876755 5.916379